Iran Policy Insider - July/August 2024

The NUFDI newsletter for Hill staffers and other policy experts brings you the latest developments in U.S.-Iran policy, diaspora activities, and what's going on inside Iran. Thank you for reading!

White House Fails to Release MAHSA Act Report

Since July 23, the Biden administration has failed to abide by the law, missing a crucial reporting deadline mandated by Congress in the MAHSA Act, a bipartisan measure designed to hold top Islamic Republic officials accountable for human rights violations. Signed into law on April 24, the MAHSA Act requires the administration to assess and potentially impose sanctions on the regime’s malicious actors within 90 days of enactment. The administration was expected to submit a detailed report to Congress outlining its determinations and plans for sanctions by the deadline, but has still not submitted anything, now over a month past this date.

The still missing report raises concerns about the administration’s commitment to holding the Islamic Republic accountable at a time when the regime continues to crack down on peaceful protesters and commit human rights abuses, with at least 81 Iranians executed in August alone (read more in the next section). The MAHSA Act is named after Mahsa Amini, whose death in police custody sparked a nationwide democratic movement in Iran. By failing to honor Mahsa’s namesake legislation, the Biden administration is failing to support the Iranian people in their struggle for democracy.

At Least 81 Iranians Executed During “Reformist” President’s First Month in Office

U.N. human rights experts voiced deep concern over a sharp increase in executions in Iran, with at least 81 people put to death in August alone. This spike has pushed the total number of executions in the country to over 400 in 2024, including 15 women, according to the independent experts appointed by the U.N. Human Rights Council. The figure marks an immediate rise from the 45 executions reported in July, the month prior to “reformist” President Pezeshkian taking office.

The Islamic Republic in Iran, which ranks second only to China in the number of annual executions, has seen a significant rise in the use of the death penalty for drug offenses. Forty-one of those executed in August were convicted on drug-related charges—a violation of international legal standards, according to the U.N. experts.

The experts, who include the U.N. Special Rapporteur on Iran, expressed grave concern over the fairness of death penalty trials in the country. They cited the case of Reza Rasaei (pictured below), a protester executed on August 6 for the alleged murder of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer. Rasaei’s conviction, they said, was based on a confession obtained through torture, and key evidence challenging his involvement was ignored by the court. This surge in executions underscores the continued lack of human rights in Iran, despite the inauguration of a “reformist” president, as well as why the United States must act urgently in its support for the Iranian people’s struggle for basic human rights.

Regime Ballistic Missile Delivery to Russia “Imminent”

On August 9, European intelligence sources revealed that dozens of Russian military personnel were in Iran for training on the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, adding that they expected “imminent delivery” of hundreds of the missiles to Russia from Iran. Tehran’s provision of these advanced missiles to Moscow represent an emboldened Islamic Republic regime, which is exploiting the lapsed U.N. embargo on its export of missiles and what it views as weak leadership in the United States. According to these reports, Tehran is also planning to supply Russia with the Ababil, another short-range missile, further enhancing Moscow’s precision-strike capabilities.

This transfer would mark a significant escalation in Iran’s military support for Russia, which until now has been focused mainly on providing drones. While the Fath-360 and Ababil missiles are limited in range, they still offer Russian forces increased flexibility, allowing them to conserve longer-range munitions for critical infrastructure strikes while employing Iranian systems for battlefield engagements. Such cooperation not only augments Russia’s military operations in Ukraine but also solidifies Tehran’s arms proliferation ambitions.

Joint Intelligence Community Statement on Islamic Republic Election Interference

On August 19, the ODNI, the FBI, and CISA issued a joint statement highlighting Iran’s ongoing efforts to interfere in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The agencies confirmed that Iran is actively engaging in influence operations aimed at “stoking discord and undermining confidence in U.S. democratic institutions.” These operations include the recent cyberattacks targeting former President Trump’s election campaign. The statement reports that the regime’s hacking efforts focus on compromising individuals with “direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties.”

The intelligence community has noted that Iran perceives the 2024 election as particularly consequential for its national security interests, driving Tehran to intensify its efforts to shape the outcome. The agencies emphasized their commitment to protecting the integrity of the election, working closely with both public and private sector partners to identify and disrupt these foreign threats. The statement also urged heightened vigilance from campaigns and election infrastructure stakeholders to bolster their cybersecurity defenses.

This interagency effort underscores the continued and escalating threat from hostile actors such as the Islamic Republic, who seek to exploit societal tensions and compromise the U.S. electoral process, particularly during times of perceived weak leadership.

House Intel Chair Warns of Insufficient Biden-Harris Response to Regime Election Interference

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (OH-10)

issued a stark warning to President Biden on August 7, criticizing the White House’s response to the Islamic Republic regime’s efforts to influence the 2024 presidential election as "dangerously insufficient." Turner’s concerns follow intelligence reports confirming Iran’s involvement in cyber operations targeting U.S. campaigns and influence activities aimed at undermining the democratic process.

Turner urged the administration to take "immediate and forceful action" to counter these threats, emphasizing that the security of the election and the integrity of U.S. democracy are at stake. The intelligence community has observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity, including recent cyberattacks on the Trump campaign, highlighting the need for a robust response to protect against foreign interference.

Coming Up: The Iran Conference

NUFDI’s third annual Iran Conference is right around the corner! Join us this year on September 26-27th in Washington, D.C. The Iran Conference is the premier forum for leading analysts, policymakers, experts, and activists from across the political spectrum on Iran.

Click here to view a full list of speakers, panel topics, and to register.