Tehran Arms Russia, Eyes Nuclear Advancement
On September 10, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder confirmed that the Islamic Republic of Iran delivered several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to the Russian Federation. The military equipment was partially delivered by state-run flag carrier Iran Air, which triggered significant political blowback from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. That same day, the United States, United Kingdom, and its E3 partners (France, Germany, and Italy) introduced a sanctions package against the regime in Iran and its institutions that facilitate the transport of lethal aid to Russia. In exchange for lethal aid, the Russian government has reportedly begun to share its technical nuclear expertise with the Islamic Republic, potentially accelerating its aspirations to become a nuclear state.
The Bottom Line
According to the United States Department of Defense and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Islamic Republic has delivered several shipments of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to Russia, which Moscow needs to continue its slow progress in its war against Ukraine.
With Russia increasingly tapping into its domestic ballistic missile inventory, Iran stands as a cost-effective stopgap solution, while the overall tempo in the western front increases.
On September 10, the United States State Department, Department of Treasury, and allied international partners designated and sanctioned entities of the Islamic Republic for facilitating the shipment of lethal aid from Iran to Russia.
Newly elected Islamic Republic President Masoud Pezeshkian vehemently denied claims that the regime was sending ballistic missiles to Russia in his first televised press conference since being inaugurated.
When asked whether Iran had transferred missiles to Russia, Pezeshkian stated, “It is possible that a delivery took place in the past... but I can assure you that since I took office, there has not been any such delivery to Russia."
Despite running on a platform of moderation and reform, Pezeshkian has entered into the geopolitical sphere with intentions to uphold the Raisi-era foreign policy agenda of attacking western values and propagating violence across the world.
The military cooperation between the Islamic Republic and Russia has evolved since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Historically, Russia has been the primary supplier of military equipment and technology to the regime in Iran. This dynamic has shifted as Tehran now provides Moscow with critical military assets, including drones.
This partnership has enabled Russia to sustain its military campaign in Ukraine while providing Iran with access to advanced military technology and expertise.
The transfer of ballistic missiles marks a strategic escalation, potentially altering regional and global security balances.
The Delivery of Arms and Subsequent Response from the West
The delivery of lethal aid to Russia triggered immediate and swift action by the United States, UK, and E3 nations, with the U.S. Department of Treasury designating several individuals and entities based in Iran that were identified as facilitating Tehran's ongoing support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In support, the foreign ministries of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany jointly announced their own sanctions package against the Islamic Republic, stating that the missile transfer was “a direct threat to European security.”
The Treasury Department sanctioned several Iranian and Russian nationals and freight vessels connected with lethal aid shipments between the two states. These vessels regularly transit the Caspian Sea and are largely responsible for the steady transfer of several key weapons systems being used in Ukraine, like unmanned aerial vehicles and now short-range ballistic missiles.
The Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile has a range of 75 miles and a top speed of mach 4, and it acts as a significantly cheaper, mass-producible, satellite-guided weapons system that allows Russian Ground Forces to preserve their more advanced, longer ranged, harder to produce missiles for high-value targets, like US provided Patriot Missile Batteries.
The United States, UK, and E3 have levied secondary sanctions against Iran’s flag-carrier, Iran Air, for facilitating the transfer of lethal-aid from Iran to Russia.
The UK and E3 have canceled their bilateral air service agreements with Iran, severely restricting Iran Air’s movements within Europe. A joint statement with regards to Iran Air, authored by the European states reads, “We will be taking immediate steps to cancel bilateral air services agreements with Iran.”
Iran Air has long been suspected of transferring weaponry, personnel, and equipment to flash points across the globe, propagating conflicts in Syria and Russia.
The number of “dark ships” - vessels that have turned off or disabled their Automatic Identification Systems - transiting the Caspian Sea nearly doubled in Q3 of 2022 onward, coinciding with the significant uptick in lethal aid being delivered to Russia from Iran.
Russian-flagged vessels are used to ferry lethal aid from Amirabad, Iran to Astrakhan, and to a lesser extent Makhachkala, Russia. These vessels often masquerade as civilian/cargo vessels by manipulating their maritime transponder.
What Moscow Has to Offer
Russia has been a leader on nuclear proliferation for more than half a century and stands as a rare, technologically advanced ally for the Islamic Republic, which has increasingly turned to Moscow and Beijing for military, economic, and political support.
Experts at the Institute for Science and International Security have estimated that, while Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb quickly, producing a warhead suitable for delivery by ballistic missiles could take six months to a few years. With Russia providing technical expertise and support, this timeline could be significantly shortened, allowing Tehran to develop a functioning nuclear weapon much faster than previously anticipated.
Remaining tasks for Iran include integrating the warhead with a delivery system and mastering the explosive mechanism.
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, “For its part, Russia is sharing technology that Iran seeks — this is a two-way street — including on nuclear issues, as well as some space information…”
United States Department of Defense Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder discussed how current intelligence indicated a transfer of technical nuclear knowledge may have been Moscow’s portion of the exchange, stating, “Without being able to go into specifics, we see them sharing information as it relates to nuclear programs, space and other technological capabilities that Russia has that countries like Iran want.”
According to Russian state-media, Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted the terms of a comprehensive strategic agreement with Iran on September 18.
This comes as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is invited by Putin to attend the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, which may act as a future lifeline for Tehran.
Strategic Policy Measures to Counter Russo-Iranian Military Cooperation
The United States and EU should enforce and expand sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s missile program and logistics networks, including broadening sanctions on Iran Air and other Iranian airlines suspected of transporting military equipment. This includes freezing assets and barring any financial transactions with these airlines globally.
Additionally, the Biden administration should pressure its allies to ban these airlines from accessing their airspace and airports to disrupt the logistical chain.
The United States should also implement targeted sanctions against entities within Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) by identifying companies and individuals directly involved in missile production and export.
Snapback sanctions remain an option to impose immediate repercussions. The E3 invoking the snapback mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 due to Iran’s non-compliance with the JCPOA would reinstate previous UN sanctions, including a comprehensive arms embargo, that expired last year.
Snapback can serve as leverage to force the Islamic Republic to halt its missile transfers and potentially slow its nuclear advancements, signaling to Tehran and Moscow that their actions have diplomatic and economic consequences.
On September 10, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member James Risch (R-ID) called for snapback sanctions to be implemented, writing on X, “Iran’s supply of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia in its war against Ukraine is a direct result of Biden-Harris’ failed Iran policy. Now we must implement snapback sanctions swiftly and adopt a strategy that will actually contain the regime. It’s long overdue.”
The United States should strengthen military collaboration with Middle Eastern allies, particularly Israel and the Persian Gulf states, to counter the proliferation of Iranian missile technology.
This should include joint military exercises focused on missile defense designed to strengthen deterrence against a military conflict as well as intelligence-sharing initiatives to track and intercept arms shipments.