[IranAlert] The Ayatollah Wavers in Shadow of Trump Threat

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has always dealt in absolutes. Styling himself as the “ tongue of God ” and demanding absolute fidelity, even from children , his words have been the law of the land in Iran for the past four decades. The self-reassured image was shattered on Monday with the frail Ayatollah wavering in a public speech.

Speaking with a raspy voice ahead of Eid al-Fitr prayers—marking the end of Ramadan—in Tehran, he said , “We are not very confident and do not see a high likelihood that any evil will be committed from outside,” presumably referring to U.S. President Donald Trump. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran if the Islamic Republic doesn’t reach a new deal with Washington.

Khamenei added, “If any evil is committed, they will definitely receive a severe counterattack.”

His statements that he is “not very confident” and does “not see a high likelihood” of a strike were a significant departure from his usual self-reassured pattern of speech. The diversion was so rare that it was flagged by senior analysts with decades of experience working on Iran.

With the military threat looming large, the regime in Iran is looking to continue its strategy of bogging the U.S. down through drip diplomacy, where the regime drags its feet while sending mixed signals to buy time. A Persian proverb encapsulates this strategy well: “Waving away an offer with one hand, while welcoming it with the other.”

On one hand, Khamenei again and again rejects “direct talks” with Washington, and his lieutenants echo the same message.

On the other hand, they leave the door open for “indirect negotiations” through a third party as they did with the Biden administration. This would inevitably be a slow process, aiming to force the United States to lift the two-month deadline introduced by the president.

Frail Leader Wary of Protests The Ayatollah appeared frail during the speech. His voice cracked more than once and he spoke in a hushed tone. Fasting during the month of Ramadan coupled with the stress of his regime being cornered have likely taken a toll on his 85-year-old body.

However, he stuck to his guns and tried to project power by threatening both his foreign adversaries as well as the Iranian people.

The Iranian economy is in shambles and the nation is facing environmental catastrophes, with water shortages choking the life out of rural life and again triggering farmer protests. The compound crises have led to the U.S. Director of National Intelligence predicting “wide scale and prolonged protests” in Iran in the months to come.

Fearful of unrest, the Supreme Leader warned that he would quash “sedition” with an iron fist, like he has in the past.

Khamenei said, “If they are thinking of starting a sedition inside the country, like they did in previous years, the Iranian nation will respond to them just like before.”

Historically, the Islamic Republic has falsely framed protests as “sedition”, blamed them on world powers, and crushed the unrest by unleashing brute force. Since 2019 , the regime has killed at least 2,000 unarmed protesters, including dozens of children to maintain its grip on power.