Islamic Republic Launches Nearly 200 Ballistic Missiles at Israel

Tehran launched an unprecedented ballistic missile attack against Israel on Tuesday, indiscriminately firing approximately 180 missiles towards Israeli cities. With assistance from U.S. forces, the majority of the missiles were intercepted, though a limited number as well as debris did fall in or near Israeli territory, causing injuries and the death of one Palestinian man in the West Bank. This escalation follows Israel’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon and recent assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, including Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah. With concerns of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran heightened, the United States and Israel have warned of severe consequences for the regime’s actions.

The Bottom Line

• The regime in Iran launched approximately 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, marking a significant escalation in their war against Israel. This is the second time that the Islamic Republic has directly launched missiles at Israel, having previously launched a combination of drones, cruise missiles, and roughly 120 ballistic missiles in April.

  • The attack comes after Israeli strikes that eliminated top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah​ and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, as well as Israel’s recent degradation of Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

  • The Islamic Republic likely utilized a variety of armaments, mostly relying on variants of the Shahab-3 family including the Emad and Ghadr missiles, as well as the Kheibar Shekan. Although the regime claimed to have utilized its new “hypersonic” Fattah missiles, the IDF has stated that the attack did not include any hypersonic or maneuverable ballistic missiles.

• Israeli and U.S. forces successfully intercepted most of the missiles. Still, the attack highlights the failure of ongoing international efforts to de-escalate the conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic in Iran.

  • Alongside the missile strike, at least one terrorist attack occurred in Jaffa, which Hamas claimed responsibility for​. Seven Israelis were murdered in the attack by two gunmen.

  • Regime officials conducted their missile strike without issuing a NOTAM (Notice to Air Mission), narrowingly missing several commercial airliners as they were transiting the region. Videosshared on social media show multiple commercial flights forced to divert as the pilots saw passing ballistic missiles, highlighting the regime's blatant disregard for the safety and well-being of innocent civilians, especially Iranians.

U.S. and Israeli Reactions

• U.S. forces assisted in intercepting the missiles, with two U.S. Navy destroyers, the USS Bulkeley and USS Cole, firing approximately a dozen missile interceptors at incoming projectiles. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed this support, reiterating that the U.S. remains fully supportive of Israel.

  • Jordan, France, and the U.K. also assisted in the interception of Iranian missiles.

• President Joe Biden emphasized that Israel has the right to respond but stressed that any response should be ”proportional,” discouraging attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Biden’s repeated focus on proportionality highlights ongoing U.S. efforts to manage the conflict through de-escalation. This approach has done little to deter the regime’s increasing provocations​.

  • Proportionality in the context of war is often misunderstood. The principle does not require a “tit-for-tat” response but rather mandates that any military action taken in self-defense must be necessary to eliminate the threat, and the harm caused to civilians must not be excessive in relation to the military advantage gained.

    • In the case of the Islamic Republic’s missile attacks, proportionality allows Israel to take the actions necessary to prevent future threats while considering the overall security objectives. This also means avoiding excessive harm to civilians, a critical part of the proportionality principle under the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC).

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that the Islamic Republic will face severe consequences, stating, “Iran made a big mistake tonight—and it will pay for it.”

  • Netanyahu’s response, in conjunction with his video message to the Iranian people on September 30, reinforces that Israel is committed to both weakening the Islamic Republic and supporting the Iranian people’s aspirations for regime change.

Israel's Potential Military Response

• Israel is expected to retaliate with strikes inside Iran, with reported options including key regime infrastructure such as missile depots or oil refineries, other IRGC military assets or bases, and nuclear facilities.

  • The Biden administration has generally been vague when discussing Israel’s potential next move, but Biden has discouraged strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying, “The answer is no,” when questioned about the prospect of Israel launching such an attack.

  • Biden also surprisingly hinted at conversations about strikes on Iran’s oil industry as well as the timing of a potential attack, saying, “We’re discussing that,” and adding, “Nothing will happen today.”

• The regime’s decision to shift from drone strikes and cruise missiles to deploying so many medium range ballistic missiles reflects its intent to project greater force and challenge Israeli defenses. This shift marks a dangerous escalation that demonstrates Tehran’s broader strategy of leveraging military provocations, not only to maintain its influence in the region, but also to achieve its longstanding goal of the destruction of Israel​.

  • The vast majority of the incoming missiles were reportedly successfully intercepted, resulting in zero Israeli casualties. Palestinian authorities reported the death of a Palestinian man in the West Bank, caused by falling debris from an intercepted missile.

  • The success of Israel’s air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow, as well as U.S. assistance, played a critical role in preventing casualties and minimizing       damage. Such a large amount of missiles launched at once, indiscriminately, suggests the Islamic Republic hoped to inflict damage and kill Israelis.

• The Islamic Republic’s missile strike, carried out despite repeated calls for de-escalation by the United States and G7 leaders, highlights the ineffectiveness of these diplomatic efforts. Tehran’s continued aggression shows that it interprets this diplomatic restraint as a sign of weakness, enabling it to push forward with its military and nuclear ambitions without facing serious consequences.

Recent Events Used by the Regime to Justify the Attack

• Throughout the Summer of 2024, the IDF air campaign against Hezbollah has steadily increased in tempo. A significant portion of Hezbollah's critical military infrastructure and leadership has been eliminated.

  • Reports indicate Israeli airstrikes have destroyed roughly half of Hezbollah’s stockpile of missiles and rockets, though tens of thousands remain across Lebanon.

• On June 2,  Hamas Political Bureau Chair Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated in an explosion at his highly protected guest residence in Tehran. Regime officials vowed for retribution for the death of a key regime ally, although no kinetic action was taken directly by the Islamic Republic until October 1.

• On September 27, Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated by an IDF airstrike targeting Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut. Nasrallah has been secretary-general of Hezbollah since 1992, and was directly responsible for several prolific terrorist attacks and culpable for the deaths of thousands of innocent civilians in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.

  • Nasrallah is one of many key figures the IDF has targeted and eliminated in a broader IDF air campaign to seek and destroy Hezbollah’s military command structure and cripple their ability to engage in a prolonged conflict.

  • Prior to the strike, the IDF carried out a covert operation aimed at sabotaging Hezbollah's communication systems. Over time, the Israeli intelligence services embedded explosives within the batteries of devices—such as pagers and walkie-talkies—that were used by Hezbollah leadership and forces. These devices, integral to Hezbollah’s chain of command, were used to coordinate attacks, ambushes, and infiltration efforts against Israel. Once distributed and in use, the devices were remotely detonated, causing severe injuries to the Hezbollah members relying on them.

Reassessing U.S. and Allied Strategies

• End the Focus on De-escalation, Apply Real Pressure

  • The U.S. and its allies should shift away from constantly emphasizing de-escalation in response to escalatory military action, as this approach has consistently failed to curb the regime’s aggressive behavior.

  • Instead, sanctions should be intensified, targeting the regime’s oil industry, military infrastructure, and transportation networks, such as Iran Air​.

  • The U.S. and E3 partners should invoke snapback sanctions under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, reinstating the arms embargo that expired in 2023. This would curtail the regime’s ability to expand its missile program and support its proxies as well as Russia in its war against Ukraine​.

• Support the Iranian People’s Aspirations for Regime Change

  • Regime change, led by the people of Iran, is the only long-term solution to ending the Islamic Republic’s threats. The international community should offer vocal support for the Iranian opposition while increasing diplomatic pressure on Tehran, as Israel increasingly has.

• Strengthen Military Cooperation with Israel and Regional Allies

  • The United States should enhance military collaboration with Israel and Gulf states, including expanding joint missile defense exercises and intelligence-sharing initiatives to counter the regime’s escalating missile capabilities​.